Prof. MA Yue (馬躍教授)

PhD - Economics & Econometrics (Manchester University)
BSc - Optimal control theory (Xiamen University)

Head (EF)
Yeung Kin Man Chair Professor of Finance

Prof. MA Yue (馬躍教授)

Contact Information

Address: 9-232, Lau Ming Wai Academic Building
City University of Hong Kong
Phone: +852 34422405
Fax: +852 34420194
Personal Web:

祝贺恩师昂格斯·迪顿(Angus Deaton)荣获诺贝尔经济学纪念大奖!

My prediction of current Euroland crisis made 16 years ago! (我16年前预言欧元困境成事实!)

The Erdős number of Yue Ma is 4.

Professor Ma (马跃) earned BSc in Optimal Control Theory (Math) from Xiamen University, China, and a joint PhD degree in Economics and Econometrics from Manchester University, the UK. He was a postgraduate student of Nobel Prize laureates Professor Robert Engle, late Professor Leonid Hurwicz, and Professor Angus Deaton when he studied at the China-US Economics Training Centre at Renmin University, Beijing, in 1985-86. He then pursued his PhD study at Manchester University under the Sino-British Friendship Scholarship Scheme sponsored by Sir Yue-Kong Pao (包玉剛) from Hong Kong, and co-sponsored by the British and the Chinese government during 1987-1990. He was a tenured Reader at Stirling University in Scotland, and Professor and Head of Economics Department at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, before he joined CityU in 2013.

    马跃教授现任香港城市大学经济与金融系主任、金融讲座教授、博导、亚太会计与经济学杂志主编(APJAE, 英文 SSCI)。

    英国曼彻斯特大学经济与计金融量经济学博士,中国人民大学经济系研究生(在中美经济培训中心有幸从师于 三位诺贝尔经济奖得主恩格尔Robert Engle、先师赫维茨Leonid Hurwicz、迪顿Angus Deaton),厦门大学控制理论专业学士。

    曾任欧洲央行特聘专家,香港金融管理局客座研究员,英国斯特灵(Stirling)大学经济学研究教授(Reader),香港 岭南大学经济系主任、教授,厦门大学王亚南经济学客座教授、闽江学者,中山大学岭南学院客座教授,香港浸会大学商学院研究顾 问。
    媒体采访:中央电视台国际频道、中国国际广播电台、凤凰卫视中文台、凤凰卫视资讯台、世华财讯、标 准普尔(上海)、英国广播公司(BBC)、西班牙电台(香港)、亚洲联合卫视。
    研究兴趣:人民币国际 化,网络经济与网络金融,企业融资与金融契约,银企关系,开放宏观经济下的汇率与货币政策,金融市场开放与稳定。


Professor Ma's research interests include banking and financial institutions, corporate finance, financial contracting, financial regulations, internationalization of Chinese currency renminbi, and Hong Kong's exchange rate and banking systems. He has published widely in international leading finance and economics journals such as Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Economic Journal, European Economic Review, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Oxford Economic Papers, Labour Economics, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Économies et Sociétés, Review of International Economics, Review of Development Economics, Econometric Theory, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Jingji Yanjiu (Economic Research Journal,《經濟研究》), Journal of Financial Research 《金融研究》, and Journal of World Economy《世界經濟》. He has also published in the working papers series of NBER, IMF, CEPR, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. His research works have been published in France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mainland China, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US.

The main findings of his research have been shared with policy makers in the World Bank, State Foreign Exchange Administration (SAFE) in Beijing, and European Central Bank (ECB), and were reported by Wall Street Journal (Real Time Economics), Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance and Financial Regulation, VoxEU, and Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Professor Ma was invited to visit Princeton, Oxford, INSEE (Paris), European University Institute, and Hong Kong Monetary Authority for research collaborations. His textbook entitled Natural Resource and Environmental Economics has been adopted in more than 30 countries worldwide and translated into both Chinese and Russian.

He has won the Best Paper Award of the Jensen Prize (the First Prize) by the Journal of Financial Economics in the area of corporate finance and organizations in 2011.

Prof Ma's google and Scopus citations can be found at:

Google scholar, Scopus citations for papers and books

Selected publications:

  1. A fire sale without fire: An explanation of labor-intensive FDI in China, with Y Huang, Z Yang, and Y Zhang, Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(4), November 2016, pp.884-901.

  2. Do property rights matter? Evidence from a property law enactment, with D Berkowitz and C Lin, Journal of Financial Economics, 116(3), 2015, pp.583–593.

  3. Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach, with T Beck and C Lin, Journal of Finance, Vol. 69(2), April 2014, pp.763-817.

  4. Political Connections and the Cost of Bank Loans, with J Houston, C Lin, and L Jiang, Journal of Accounting Research, 52(1), March 2014, pp.193–243.

  5. Factor Intensity, Product Switching, and Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Exporters, with H Tang and Y Zhang, Journal of International Economics, 92(2), March 2014, pp.349–362.

  6. Corporate Ownership Structure and the Choice between Bank Debt and Public Debt, with C Lin, P Malatesta, Y Xuan, Journal of Financial Economics, 109, 2013, pp.517-534.

  7. Regulatory Arbitrage and International Bank Flows, with J Houston, C Lin, Journal of Finance, 67, 2012, pp.1845-1895.

  8. Corporate Ownership Structure and Bank Loan Syndicate Structure, with C Lin, P Malatesta, Y Xuan, Journal of Financial Economics, 104, 2012, pp.1-22, (Lead article).

  9. The Real and Financial Implications of Corporate Hedging, with M Campello, C Lin, H Zou, Journal of Finance, 66, 2011, pp.1615-1647.

  10. Ownership Structure and Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Structural Estimation, with C Lin, Y Xuan, Journal of Financial Economics, 102, 2011, pp.416-431.

  11. Media Ownership, Concentration and Corruption in Bank Lending, with J Houston, C Lin, Journal of Financial Economics, 100, 2011, pp.326-350.

  12. Ownership Structure and the Cost of Corporate Borrowing, with C Lin, P Malatesta, Y Xuan, Journal of Financial Economics, 100, 2011, pp.1-23, (Lead article) (summary posted at Harvard Law School website). 

  13. Creditor Rights, Information Sharing and Bank Risk Taking, with J Houston, C Lin, P Lin, Journal of Financial Economics, 96, 2010, pp.485-512.

  14. Wage-Hours Contracts, Overtime Working and Premium Pay, with R A Hart, Labour Economics, 17(1), pp.170 -179, Jan 2010.

  15. Judicial quality, contract intensity and trade: Firm-level evidence from developing and transition countries, with B Qu, Y Zhang, Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(2), pp.146-159, June 2010.

  16. External shocks, balance sheet contagion, and speculative attack on the pegged exchange rate system, Review of Development Economics, 13(1), pp.87-98, Feb 2009.

  17. Wages, hours and human capital over the lifecycle, with R A Hart, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik (Journal of Economics and Statistics), 228(5), pp.446-464, Germany, Dec 2008.

  18. Incomplete financial market and the sequence of international trade liberalization, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 13(1), pp.108-117, Jan 2008.

  19. Domino effects within a housing market: The transmission of house price changes across quality tiers, with L S Ho and D Haurin, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 37(4), pp.299-316, November 2008.

  20. Inter-regional Integration of Metropolitan Cluster among Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Macao, Journal of National Development Studies, 6(1), pp.169 -193, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Oct 2007.

  21. A Comparative Study of Exchange Rate Regimes and Macro-instabilities in the Twin Economies of Singapore and Hong Kong, with Y Y Kueh and R Ng, Singapore Economic Review, 52(1), pp.93 -116, Singapore, Apr 2007.

  22. Intrinsic bubbles revisited: Evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting, with A Kanas, Journal of Forecasting, 23(4), pp.237-250, July 2004.

  23. Profit maximization in a multi-product firm with impatient customers, with E J Levin and R E Wright, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 55(3), pp.211-218, 2004.

  24. Currency substitution and speculative attacks on a currency board system, with S K Tsang, Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(1), pp.53-78, February 2002.

  25. Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM, with A Kanas, Journal of International Money and Finance, 19(1), pp.135-152, February 2000.

  26. A macroeconomic model of direct investment in foreign affiliates of Japanese firms, with K Morikawa and R Shone, Japan and the World Economy, 12(4), pp.311 -335, Dec 2000.

  27. International intra-industry trade of China, with X Hu, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics), 135(1), pp.82-101, Germany, March 1999.

  28. Hybrid algorithms with automatic switching for solving nonlinear equation systems, with A J Hughes Hallett and Y P Yin, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20(6-7), pp.1051-1071, 1996.

  29. A Double Length Regression Computation Method for the 2SGLS Estimator of Rational Expectations Models, with S Liu, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(2), pp.423-429, 1996.

  30. Optimum International Policies for the World Depression, with J Foreman-Peck and A Hughes Hallett, Économies et Sociétés, Série AF, Vol. 22, pp.219 -242, France, Apr 1996.

  31. The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Forward-Looking Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-9, with M J Artis and R Bladen-Hovell, Oxford Economic Papers, pp.277-295, 1994.

  32. East Germany, West Germany, and their Mezzogiorno problem: A parable for European economic integration, with A J Hughes Hallett, Economic Journal, 103(417), pp.416-28, March 1993.

  33. The transmission of the great depression in the United States, Britain, France and Germany, with J Foreman-Peck and A J Hughes Hallett, European Economic Review, 36(2), pp.685-694, 1992.


    Published Articles in Refereed Journals in Chinese

  34. Monetary policy autonomy: China's practice (in Chinese, 货币政策对外自主性: 中国的实践), Journal of Quantitative and Technical Economics 《数量经济技术经济研究》, with H Sun, Beijing: Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 1, 2015, pp.52-66 .

  35. Difficulties of Implementing a Transparent Basket Peg: Theory and Practice (in Chinese, 钉住透明性一揽子货币的困难 和各国的经验分析), Journal of World Economy《世界经济》, Vol. 2007, Issue 4, pp.44-53, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing (北京: 社科院世界经济与政治研 究所), Apr 2007

  36. Short Term Capital Inflow and Market Interest Rate in China (in Chinese, 化解热钱流入形成的升值压力:市场自动调节 机制和政策措施), Journal of World Economy《世界经济》, with H Sun, Vol. 2005, Issue 4, pp.13-21, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing (北京: 社科院世 界经济与政治研究所), Apr 2005

  37. On the revaluation pressure: The interest rate mechanism and government policy (in Chinese, 升值压力的缓解:利率机 制和政府对策), Journal of Financial Research《金融研究》, with H Sun, Vol. 6 (2004), pp. 17 -26, Research Dept of China's Central Bank, Beijing (北京:中国人民银行金融研究编辑部), Jun 2004

  38. Monetary Policy and Stock Market in China (in Chinese, 中国货币政策与股票市场的关系探索), Journal of Economic Research《经济研究》, with H Sun, Vol. 7, pp.44-53, Economics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing (北京: 社科院经济研究所), Jul 2003

  39. Banking Deregulation and Macroeconomic Impact in China: A Theoretical Analysis and Implications of WTO Accession to the Mainland and Hong Kong (in Chinese, 银行业放松管制的理论分析与宏观效果 -- 兼论中国加入WTO对大陆和香港的影响), Journal of Economic Research《经济研究》, with Z Zhao et al, Vol. 6, pp. 14 -22, Economics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing (北京: 社科院经济研究所), Jun 2002

  40. China's accession to the WTO: a financial economic analysis of an irreversible decision (in Chinese, 中国加入WTO: 不可逆决策的金融经济学分析), Journal of Economic Research《经济研究》, Vol. 12, pp.9-16, Beijing: E​​ conomics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Science (北京: 社科院经济研究所), Dec 2001, (This paper was reprinted in Selected Essays on Science and Technology Development in China, Vol. 2 , Yanshi Press, Beijing, 2003 (《 中国科技发展精典文库》第二辑, 中国言实出版社2003年2月)


Media interviews

1) Telephone interview with China Radio International (中国国际广播电台) on Sept 24, 2014 on the UK government’s issuing RMB bond and its implications to RMB internalization. Link and recorded interview

The Erdős number of Yue Ma is 4, as is demonstrated by the following 4 references:

4) Yue Ma and S Liu, 1996. A Double Length Regression Computation Method for the 2SGLS Estimator of Rational Expectations Models. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 58(2), 423-429.

3) SW Drury, S Liu, CY Lu, S Puntanen, GPH Styan, 2002. Some comments on several matrix inequalities with applications to canonical correlations: historical background and recent developments. Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series A, 453-507.

2) Norman J. Pullman and George P. H. Styan, 1973. The convergence of Markov chains with nonstationary transition probabilities and constant causative matrix. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 1(3), 279-285.

1) Louis Caccetta, Paul Erdős, Edward T. Ordman, Norman J. Pullman, 1985. The difference between the clique numbers of a graph. Ars Combinatoria 19, A, 97-106.

Paul Erdős (1913-1996) was the most prolific mathematician of the 20th century (with more than 500 collaborators). Studies have shown that leading mathematicians tend to have low Erdős numbers. For example, the median Erdős number of Fields Medalists is 3. Background on the folklore in mathematics about the Erdős number is here:

The American Mathematical Society provides a free online tool to determine the Erdös Number:




My prediction of current Euroland crisis made 16 years ago! (我16年前预言欧元困境成事实!)

Cultural Clash as a Threat to Fragile Euro: How long can it survive?

Yue Ma
(an edited version of this article was published in Economic View column, South China Morning Post, 31 January 1999)

Since 1st January 1999, local currencies of the 11 European countries have been linked to euro at fixed exchange rates. These first round participating countries include Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Euro is the single currency of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). All central banks of the 11 participating members have surrendered their control of money supply to the European Central Bank located at Frankfurt. There are four European Union members not participating in the euro's first round. They are Denmark, Greece, Sweden and the UK.

The euro bloc with 11 participating countries has a larger total population size than the US and is the 2nd largest economy after the US in the world. It was understood the benefits of the single currency include the elimination of currency risks within the euroland and therefore encouraging cross border businesses such as investment and trade.

However, economists have argued forcefully for a long period of time about the potential costs of forming such a single currency. For example, the 'optimum currency area' theory developed by Robert Mundell and Ronald McKinnon in 1960s established a presumption that in a monetary union the adjustment mechanism will rely more on factor mobility than on real exchange rate flexibility. Whilst the economic integration within Europe and the new single currency may induce more factor mobility such as capital flows, the existence of heterogeneous cultural and language barriers may prevent labour mobility.

In a successful monetary union such as the US, an automatic fiscal transfer mechanism is also primarily important to support the viability of the union in the case of asymmetric regional shocks. However, the EMU is lack of such mechanism. For example, a German tax payer is unlikely inclined to pay an unemployed in France. A young worker in the Netherlands is doubtfully willing to support a pensioner in Italy. Furthermore, all countries are still facing different risks against currencies outside euroland depending upon individual country's trading and debt structures.

There has been an intention to absorb some, if not all, of eastern European countries into the EMU. That would exaggerate the problems I mentioned above. We only need to look at the situation in eastern Germany after the reunification to find support for this argument.

Finally, the sustainability of a monetary union also requires a strong political support that is weak and fragile in the existing structure of the EMU. The most dramatic historic example is that the union, surprisingly again, in the US was maintained by the military forces during the Civil War.

In conclusion, it was expected that the euroland will prosper when the business climate is promising but will have serious economic and political crises when there are adverse shocks to, maybe just some of, those economies. The sooner that shock comes, the shorter the life of the euro will be.




中文译文见香港城市大学EMBP(中文)课程官方微信网站, 2015.7.4, 译者:杜婷婷、马跃.

1999年1月1日,欧元在欧盟11个成员国家中正式启动。这11个国家包括:奥地利、比利时、法国、芬兰、法国、德国、爱尔兰、卢森 堡、意大利、荷兰、葡萄牙和西班牙。

欧元是欧洲经济货币联盟(EMU)国家的单一货币。11个国家的货币政策从此统 一交由设在德国法兰克福的欧洲中央银行来负责。有四个欧盟国家并不在欧元的创始国之列,它们是丹麦、希腊、瑞典和英国。

作为一个经济体,11个创始国家所构成的欧元区,人口数量超过美国,经济总量仅次于美国,为全球第二大经 济体。那时候人们普遍认为,实施单一货币政策有利于消除区内国家间的汇率风险,降低跨国交易成本 ,从而促进欧元区内商品和资本市场的融合。

但在学术界,单一货币的潜在成本正是经济学家们长期争 论的焦点之所在。比如,在20世纪60年代,罗伯特·蒙代尔(1999年获诺贝尔经济学奖、“欧元之父”)和罗纳德 ·麦金农率先提出了“最优货币区理论”。他们认为,在单一货币区内,调节经济的机制更依赖于生产要素的流动 性而不是汇率的浮动性。 尽管欧洲经济一体化和单一货币的推行会提高资本流动性,但区内各成员国 的文化差异以及不同语言的障碍,则可能阻碍相互间劳动力的自由流动。

另外,在诸如美国这样 成功的货币联盟内,自动的财政转移机制在应付各个地区的非对称冲击也至关重要。譬如,当 加州的硅谷经济蓬勃发展的同时,底特律的经济也许面临失业萧条的困境,所以联邦政府的财政自动转移可以适当调节其经济矛盾。 但在欧元区内,恰好缺少这种自动机制。还有,一个德国的纳税人也许不太会情愿为法国社会的失业现象买单,一个荷兰的年轻就业 者也并不大可能愿意去赡养意大利的一位退休老人。同时,根据欧元区各个国家的区外贸易和债务结构 ,所有国家仍然面临着或大或小的区外汇率风险

至于吸纳部分东欧国家加入欧元区的意图,我认为,这只会 加剧上述矛盾。关于这点,我们只要看看柏林墙推翻之后,东德是如何完全倚仗德国政府的财政“输血 ”、特殊补助政策以维持经济发展的状况就足以明白。

最后,一个货币联盟 的可持续性,需要其政治领袖拿出非凡的政治智慧和敢于承担的政治勇气来维持。但在目前的欧元区内,这恰好是它非常脆弱和缺少 的致命弱点。历史上最具戏剧性的一幕是在美国南北战争期间,各方利益和诉求的不同,导致最后不得不通过军事武力来维持 整个联盟的统一。

总之,当经济大环境向好的时候,欧元区将会保持繁荣;而一旦某些 个成员国的经济形势发生逆转,在各主权国家利益泾渭分明的情况下,将会对欧元区带来严重的经济和政治危机,欧元本身的生命力 也将受到严重挑战。




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