Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) serves as an indicator of spending intentions over a particular period by examining consumer perceptions about current and anticipated social and economic conditions.
Dr. Geoffrey Tso, Associate Head, Associate Professor, and the Director of the Statistical Consulting Unit from the Department of Management Sciences led a joint research project. The research finds that the Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the cross-strait region, Hong Kong and Macau for the first quarter of 2020 on April 2020, announced that the overall Hong Kong CCI was 55.3, down 19.5% year on year (YoY) and down 31.7% quarter on quarter (QoQ).
The project team surveys were conducted by telephone interview from the 9th of March 2020 to the 31st of March 2020. By adopting a random sampling procedure, 1,003 interviews were conducted with residents aged 18 or above in Hong Kong to collect the necessary information for the HKCCI index which covers six economic aspects, details consumer sentiment towards economic development, employment, commodity prices, the standard of living, property purchases, and stock investment.
The CCI result of this quarter is the second-lowest point since it was announced in the third quarter of 2008, which is almost to the lowest record of 52.8 measured in the third quarter of 2019. All the sub-indices are measured at 65 or lower, shows that Hong Kong consumers lack confidence in these aspects.
There were significant decreases in customers' confidence levels in four main aspects: Stock Investments, Commodity Prices, Standard of Living, and Employment. Nevertheless, Consumer confidence has also declined in the other two aspects: Economic Development and Property Purchases.
The overall result drops significantly compared with the result of the last quarter due to the decrease in consumer confidence in all aspects. The sub-indices for Stock Investments, Commodity Prices, Standard of living, and Employment have all dropped by more than 20%. The result of this quarter is the second-lowest point since this index was introduced in the third quarter of 2008, which approaching the lowest record of 52.8 measured in the third quarter of 2019. This indicates that Hong Kong consumers’ confidence level is still very low. The situation is possibly caused by the continuous influences by the outbreak of the epidemic in the past months.
For the details, please refer to the website: https://www.cityu.edu.hk/media/press-release/2020/04/08/hong-kong-consumer-confidence-has-significantly-decreased-and-become-second-lowest-point-3rd-quarter-2008
Table 1. Results of the CCI index (Overall*)
Ratio
Category |
Year on Year |
Quarter on Quarter |
||||
2019 Q1 |
2020 Q1 |
Ratio |
2019 Q4 |
2020 Q1 |
Ratio |
|
Economic development |
91.5 |
55.8 |
-39.0% |
65.3 |
55.8 |
-14.5% |
Employment |
91.9 |
53.3 |
-42.0% |
67.2 |
53.3 |
-20.7% |
Commodity Prices |
69.7 |
58.6 |
-15.9% |
76.2 |
58.6 |
-23.1% |
Standard of Living |
95.9 |
65.5 |
-31.7% |
83.5 |
65.5 |
-21.6% |
Property Purchases |
57.4 |
48.8 |
-15.0% |
52.5 |
48.8 |
-7.0% |
Stock Investments |
79.8 |
50.0 |
-37.3% |
67.3 |
50.0 |
-25.7% |
Overall CCI |
81.0 |
55.3 |
-31.7% |
68.7 |
55.3 |
-19.5% |
*The overall index is a weighted index that combines the present and expected CCI.
Table 2. Results of the CCI (Present and Expected#)
Category |
2019 Q4 |
2020 Q1 |
||
Present |
Expected |
Present |
Expected |
|
Economic development |
61.7 |
67.7 |
54.8 |
56.4 |
Employment |
67.4 |
67.1 |
50.0 |
55.5 |
Commodity Prices |
63.5 |
84.7 |
47.3 |
66.1 |
Standard of Living |
90.3 |
78.9 |
62.8 |
67.3 |
Property Purchases |
49.6 |
54.5 |
49.5 |
48.3 |
Stock Investments |
66.2 |
68.0 |
48.3 |
51.1 |
Present and Expected CCI |
66.5 |
70.2 |
52.1 |
57.5 |
# Expected results in the next three months