We synthesize the field of machine learning with the canonical problem of empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premia. In the familiar empirical setting of cross section and time series stock return prediction, we perform a comparative analysis of methods in the machine learning repertoire, including generalized linear models, dimension reduction, boosted regression trees, random forests, and neural networks. At the broadest level, we find that machine learning offers an improved description of expected return behavior relative to traditional forecasting methods. Our implementation establishes a new standard for accuracy in measuring risk premia summarized by an unprecedented out-of-sample return prediction R2. We identify the best performing methods (trees and neural nets) and trace their predictive gains to allowance of nonlinear predictor interactions that are missed by other methods. Lastly, we find that all methods agree on the same small set of dominant predictive signals that includes variations on momentum, liquidity, and volatility. Improved risk premia measurement through machine learning can simplify the investigation into economic mechanisms of asset pricing and justifies its growing role in innovative financial technologies.
Dacheng Xiu’s research interests include developing statistical methodologies and applying them to financial data, while exploring their economic implications. His earlier research involved risk measurement and portfolio management with high-frequency data and econometric modeling of derivatives. His current work focuses on developing machine learning solutions to big-data problems in empirical asset pricing. Xiu’s work has appeared in Econometrica, the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of the American Statistical Association, the Annals of Statistics, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. He is an Associate Editor for the Journal of Econometrics and Statistica Sinica, and also referees for several journals in the fields of econometrics, statistics, and finance. He has received several recognitions for his research, including the 2018 AQR Insight Award, the 2017 fellow of the Journal of Econometrics, the 2017 Dennis J. Aigner Honorable Mention, and the Best Conference Paper Prize at the 2017 Annual Meeting of the European Finance Association.