Seminar: Model Confidence Bounds for Variable Selection
Date: May 29 (Mon), 2017
Time: 2:30pm to 3:30pm
Venue: Room 14-222, 14/F, Lau Ming Wai Academic Building

In this article, we introduce the concept of model confidence bounds (MCBs) for variable selection in the context of nested models. Similarly to the endpoints in the familiar confidence interval for parameter estimation, the MCBs identify two nested models (upper and lower confidence bound models) containing the true model at a given level of confidence. Instead of trusting a single selected model obtained from a given model selection method, the MCBs proposes a group of nested models as candidates and the MCBs’ width and composition enable the practitioner to assess the overall model selection uncertainty. A new graphical tool, the model uncertainty curve (MUC), is introduced to visualize the variability of model selection and to compare different model selection procedures. The MCBs methodology is implemented by a fast bootstrap algorithm that is shown to yield the correct asymptotic coverage under rather general conditions. Our Monte Carlo simulations and a real data example confirm the validity and illustrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Event Speaker
Prof Yang Li, Renmin University of China

Dr. Yang Li is an Associate Professor of School of Statistics at Renmin University of China. He is also the Director of Statistical Consulting Center at Renmin University of China and the Elected Member of International Statistical Institute (ISI). His research interest is the methodological and applied study on biostatistics and market research.