Working Paper Series


Serial No. Author(s)



Mali Chivakul (IMF) and Bernhard Kassner (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up As Investment Slows?


Michele Ca' Zorzi (ECB), Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin


Luca Dedola (ECB, CEPR), Georgios Georgiadis (ECB), Johannes Grab (ECB) and Arnaud Mehl (ECB)

Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates

#2018-023 Daniel J. Benjamin (USC / NBER)

Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases


Bo─čaçhan Çelen (Melbourne), Sen Geng and Huihui Li (Xiamen)

Belief Error and Non-Bayesian Social Learning: An Experimental Evidence


Rasmus Fatum, Runjuan Liu (University of Alberta), Jiadong Tong, Jiayun Xu (Nankai University)

Beggar Thy Neighbor or Beggar Thy Domestic Firms? Evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese Customs Data


Huichou Huang (Jupiter Asset Management) and Lukas Menkhoff (DIW Berlin and Humboldt University)

Global Positioning Risk and FX Trading Strategies


Estelle Xue Liu and Zijun Liu (HKMA)

Funding Shocks through Cross-border Banking in Asia A Network-based Approach


Tanjim Hossain (Toronto), Elizabeth Lyons (UC San Diego) and Aloysius Siow (Toronto) 

Equity and Efficiency in the Organization of Firms


Riccardo Pansini, (Kunming Institute of Zoology / Chinese Academy of Sciences), Marco Campennì (Exeter) and Lei Shi (Yunnan University of Finance and Economics)

Asymmetric Use of Punishment in Socioeconomic Segregated Societies Leads to an Unequal Distribution of Wealth


Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, Joe Cho Yiu NG (City University of HK)

Macro Aspects of Housing


Sumit Agarwal (National University of Singapore), Elvira Sojli and Wing Wah Tham (University of New South Wales)

Commute Time and Labor Supply


Daniel J. Benjamin (USC / NBER), Don A. Moore (UC Berkeley) and Matthew Rabin (Harvard / Cambridge)

Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments



Mika Meitz (Helsinki), Daniel Preve (City University of HK), Pentti Saikkonen (Helsinki)

A mixture autoregressive model based on Student’s t–distribution


Eric Osei Opoku (City University of HK), Isabel K.M. Yan (City University of HK) and Kate Hydes (University College Dublin)

Reaching Up and Reaching Out: The Impact of Competition on Firms’ Productivity and Export Decisions


Abhijit Ramalingam (Appalachian State University), Brock V. Stoddard (Appalachian State University), James M. Walker (Indiana)

The Market for Talent: Competition for Resources and Self-Governance in Teams

#2018-010 Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of HK), Cho-Hoi Hui (HKMA), Andrew Tsang (HKMA)

The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016

#2018-009 Peter Tillmann, Andreas Walter (Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, Germany)

ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and Policy Effectiveness

#2018-008 Charles Engel (Wisconsin), JungJae Park (National University of Singapore)

Debauchery and Original Sin: The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt


Youngjin Yun (Bank of Korea)

Reserve Accumulation and Bank Lending: Evidence from Korea

#2018-006 Shuo Cao (Shenzhen Stock Exchange)

Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty


Sven Steinkamp and Frank Westermann (Osnabrück University, Germany)

Systemic crisis and growth revisited: Has the global financial crisis marked a new era


Peter Tillmann (Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, Germany)

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks


Woo Jin Choi (Korea Development Institute), Alan M. Taylor (UC Davis)

Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate

Lena Kraus, Jürgen Beier, Bernhard Herz (Universität Bayreuth)

Sudden stops inside and outside the euro area - what a difference TARGET2 makes


Jeffry Frieden (Harvard)

The politics of the globalization backlash: Sources and implications